Intro.
#Burn Rate — Gross vs. Net
Burn rate is how much cash a company spends each month. For a company with revenue, gross burn (total spend) and net burn (spend minus revenue) diverge, and investors check both numbers.
| Metric | Formula | What It Means |
|---|
| Gross Burn | Total monthly spend (payroll + operations + marketing + contractors) | The absolute size of your cost structure |
| Net Burn | Gross burn minus monthly revenue | The actual rate cash is disappearing |
| Runway | Cash on hand ÷ monthly net burn | How many months you can operate on current funds |
TIP
At a pre-revenue seed stage, gross burn and net burn are identical. Once revenue kicks in, net burn drops, and once revenue exceeds costs, you enter what's known as 'default alive' territory.
02
#Runway — Your Time Until the Next Round
Runway answers a single question: how many months can the company operate on the cash currently in the bank? After a seed round, the standard target is 18-24 months of runway, with the goal of closing Series A well within that window.
| Round | Recommended Runway | When to Start Prepping the Next Round |
|---|
| Pre-Seed → Seed | 12-18 months | Start fundraising conversations with 6 months of runway left |
| Seed → Series A | 18-24 months | Start fundraising conversations with 9 months of runway left |
| Series A → B | 18-24 months | Start fundraising conversations with 9 months of runway left |
주의
Start fundraising with six months of runway or less, and your negotiating leverage collapses. Investors can spot a company that's racing against the clock, and both valuation and terms get discounted accordingly.
03
#Burn Multiple — An Efficiency Metric for Scaling
Once you're scaling post-Series A, an additional efficiency metric enters the picture: burn multiple — how many dollars you burned to generate one dollar of ARR. Series A and B investors weigh this number about as heavily as revenue growth rate.
| Burn Multiple | Efficiency Rating |
|---|
| < 1x | Amazing — revenue growth is outpacing spend |
| 1x - 2x | Great — efficient growth |
| 2x - 3x | Good — an average level |
| > 3x | Suspect — needs a cost-efficiency review |
Formula: Burn Multiple = Net Burn ÷ Net New ARR. At the seed stage, ARR is still too small for this to mean much, but from Series A onward it becomes a core metric.
04
#Warning Signs of a Shrinking Runway — Patterns to Catch Early
- Monthly net burn rises more than 10% for three consecutive months — a sign you're losing control of costs
- Hiring is outpacing revenue growth — payroll climbs past 70% of total spend
- New customer growth stalls even as marketing spend increases — CAC is spiking
- Inventory or contractor costs grow abnormally relative to revenue — a sign of weakening pricing leverage
- Churn rises relative to new customers — net new ARR turns negative
주의
A runway crisis never arrives out of nowhere. If two or more of these signs show up at once, redesign your cost structure immediately.
05
#Strategies for Responding to a Shrinking Runway
| Strategy | Effect | Risk |
|---|
| Bridge round | Adds 6-12 months of runway | Requires existing investor buy-in, valuation stays frozen |
| Cost cutting | Immediately reduces monthly burn | Hurts morale, risks losing key talent |
| Accelerating monetization | Reduces net burn | Risks disrupting your PMF-validation trajectory |
| Project-based revenue | Brings in cash | Muddies a pure SaaS business model |
| Government support programs | Covers part of your costs | Administrative burden, time-consuming |
Which strategy makes sense depends heavily on timing and stage. A bridge round at the seed stage means a frozen valuation plus extra dilution, while cost-cutting right before a Series B can make it hard to rebuild investor confidence.
06
#The Standard Format for Investor Reporting
In a monthly or quarterly investor update, the standard way to report burn and runway is in four lines.
- Cash balance — the bank balance as of month-end
- Monthly net burn — averaged over the trailing three months
- Runway — current cash ÷ monthly net burn
- Next round timeline — your target date to kick off fundraising
TIP
Sending these four lines before an investor has to ask 'so what's the plan for next year?' is what builds trust. Companies that skip regular reporting tend to be perceived as carrying more hidden risk, not less.
Summary.
#Self-Check: A Founder's Checklist
- Can you state this month's net burn instantly — within a second?
- Is your current runway closer to 12, 18, or 24 months?
- Has your burn been stable over the past three months, or is it trending up?
- Is your target date to start the next fundraise set while you still have 9+ months of runway left?
- Do you have a Plan B ready for the 6-months-of-runway mark — a bridge round, cost cuts, or government support?
- Are you reporting burn and runway to your investors on a monthly or quarterly basis?
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